Countdown to the Playoffs!

Week 18 started out with 22 teams eligible for the 14 playoff slots. In the AFC, Los Angeles, Indianapolis, New England, and Baltimore have each locked in a seat in the playoffs. While in the NFC only two teams: Seattle and Green Bay have playoff certainty.

Dan Morin put together an outstanding summary of tie-breakers and outcomes for the NFC:

#1 Packers 14-2 (W18 vs Lions) – win and/or one Seattle loss and they’re top seed due to H2H vs Seahawks.

#2 Seahawks 13-2 (W17 vs Lions W18 vs Cards) – need 2 wins & a Packers W18 loss for #1 seed.

#3 Cowboys 9-6 (W17 vs Cards W18 vs Eagles) – Better Conf record & H2H win over Bucs; H2H win vs Eagles so even if they lose this week & win W18 they win division. Could miss playoffs with 2 losses, 49ers W18 win & at least one more Falcons win.

#4 Bucs 10-6 (W18 vs Panthers) – W18 win clinches division. Can jump to #3 seed with 1 Cowboys loss & W18 win due to H2H win over Eagles.

#5 Rams 10-6 (W18 vs 49ers) – Clinch 5 seed with W18 win due to better Conf record (6-5 vs 4-6) than Eagles. Could miss playoffs with loss, 2 Falcons wins & Cowboys W17 win + W18 loss.

#6 Eagles 9-6 (W17 vs Commanders W18 vs Cowboys) – Must win both to win division if Cowboys win W17; If Cowboys lose W17 then W18 game is for division no matter what. Out of playoffs with 2 losses, Bucs win W18, Falcons win both, and 49ers beat Rams (Rams will have better conference record).

#7 Falcons 8-6-1 (W17 vs Bills W18 vs Saints) – Make playoffs with one win & Rams win & Cardinals loss. Win both and they’re in at 6 seed even if Cowboys-Eagles tie due to H2H win over both and could jump to 5 seed with Rams loss to 49ers. Can win division with 2 wins & W18 Bucs loss to Panthers. W17 loss plus Cowboys & Eagles W17 win & 49ers W18 win knocks them out.
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#8 49ers 9-7 (W18 vs Rams) – need at least one Falcons loss & win over Rams giving them H2H sweep.

#9 Cardinals 8-7 (W17 vs Cowboys W18 vs Seahawks) – Must win both games to make playoffs AND for Rams to beat 49ers or lose common games tiebreaker to 49ers,

#10+ Vikings &Giants (8-8)  Both out if Falcons, Eagles & Cowboys win W17; Vikings will have better conference record vs Giants if they tie. Giants cannot beat Eagles in tiebreaker (swept H2H) if Cowboys win division so are likely out if Cowboys win W18, If Cowboys lose both, Giants win wild card tiebreaker over Cowboys due to H2H sweep if Falcons lose both, Rams beat Niners AND Vikings lose; Vikings could sneak in with W18 win, 2 Falcons losses, AND 2 Cowboys losses.

And for the AFC:

#1 seed: Chargers if they win W18; Patriots if they tie Chargers (H2H win); Colts in 3-way tie with Chargers/Patriots (conference record)
#2 seed: Colts if tied with Patriots (H2H win); Chargers in 3-way tie with Colts/Patriots (conference record)
#3 seed: Patriots if Chargers & Colts win
#4 seed: Ravens – AFC North Champion
Wildcards
Jaguars – win and they’re in
Browns – win and they’re in

• If Raiders win, Chiefs or Broncos win, Titans win, & Steelers win – Steelers are #7 seed. Raiders would knock out Chiefs (division record) OR Broncos (sweep), and Steelers & Titans better conference record than Raiders, & Steelers beat Titans H2H.
• If Chiefs or Broncos win, Raiders lose, Titans win, & Steelers win – Steelers are #7 seed with H2H wins over Chiefs AND Titans OR Steelers & Titans better conference record than Broncos, & Steelers beat Titans H2H

It looks like anyone other than the Steelers and Titans needs both the Jaguars and Browns to lose to make the playoffs.

• If Browns OR Jaguars win AND the other loses — the winning team Browns/Jaguars are #5 seed, Steelers #6 seed (if they win), Titans #7 seed (if they win).

My head hurt with all the different scenarios if Browns AND Jaguars lose and Titans/Steelers/Raiders/Cheifs/Broncos/etc… win or lose.

Game of the Week:

Atlanta 26 – New Orleans 25

It took 59:59 and a furious 4th quarter rally but the Atlanta Falcons won the NFC South on a Younghoe Koo 23 yard field goal before a raucous home crowd. It was Koo’s third fourth quarter field goal which included a 50-yarder with 2:24 left to pull the Falcons within two.

Atlanta’s offense was stymied in the first half with only 5 first downs, 86 yards, and a Koo field goal to head into the locker room at half down 16-3. Taysom Hill led the Saints to 13 first downs and 195 yards. When Atlanta deferred the opening kick, Hill drove New Orleans downfield, but the possession stalled, and Brett Maher missed a 43-yard field goal attempt right. The D forced a three-and-out which led to the first score of the game, a Hill to Tre-Quan Smith 6-yard TD pass. Maher missed the extra point and who knew the miss would be so huge in the end.

The Saints had a significant field position advantage most of the half which helped them tack on 10 points over the last 5 minutes for the 16-3 lead. Maher drilled a 41-yard field goal as time expired following Matt Ryan’s second interception of the gaem.

Atlanta scored after taking the second half kick courtesy of team, and potential USFFL, 2021 MVP Cordarrelle Patterson hauling in a 58-yard deep toss from Ryan. Patterson ended with another 100-yard game receiving and added 55 on the ground to finish with 2,229 combined yards rushing/receiving. he also led the team with 88 receptions and 15 total touchdowns.

The Falcons held the ball for nearly 19 2nd half minutes. New Orleans, which totaled 7 first-half possessions had only 5 after half time. The Saints added a FG (47 yards) and a touchdown on the first two but failed a two-point conversion attempting to make up for the missed 1st half extra point. They were up 25-10 with just two-minutes left in the third quarter. Falcons brass started asking what time the weekend Rams-49ers game would kick off, however, the offense scored on its last four possesions of the game and the unlikely win.

After a Koo field goal, Atlanta’s D picked Hill off for the second time on the afternoon taking over at their own 34. Ryan led the team on three 1st downs but faced a 3rd and 9 at the New Orleans 19. the saints had been regularly doubling star rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, but Ryan attempted a quick slant fearing a Cameron Jordan sack potentially booting them out of field goal range. Pitts hit an open zone and outraced everyone to the end zone closing the gap to 25-20 with 9:18 left in the game. The Saints picked up a couple first downs, but a penalty put them behind the sticks at a 2nd and 16 from which they were unable to convert leading to a punt with 7:30 left. Atlanta hoped to score but suck up most of the clock and rely on the D and a division title, but the Saints D buckled down forcing a 50-yard Koo field goal after a nearly 5-minute possession. The falcons kicked off down 25-23 with only 2:24 left.

A first down Hill to Marquez Calloway short pass fell incomplete. The Falcons D blitzed both inside linebackers on 2nd and 10 and Deion Jones’ 4 beat left guard Calvin Throckmorten’s 3 for a HUGE 8-yard sack forcing an unsuccessful 3rd and 18 and a punt. It was the game’s only sack and just the 10th sack of the year for the defense. Ryan took over after the punt at his own 29 with only 1:45 left. Halfback Mike Davis hit a 17-yard off tackle on the first play to the Atlanta 46. After offsetting penalties, Paterson rushed for 4 to midfield with :52 left. Ryan then looked short for Hayden Hurst but checked down to Pitts who rumbled 23 yards to the NO 27. Consecutive flats of 9 and 13 yards to Pitts and Patterson allowed Atlanta to stop the clock with :01 left for the Koo game-winner.

Great game, Dan. The Falcons win the NFC South, coincidentally, on a game winning field goal after Tampa Bay missed a Week 18 last minute potential game winner from 41 yards on a 9 roll (2-8 was good). Today, I don’t hate kickers. Atlanta will host the Cardinals in the wild card round if the Rams beat the 9ers and would face either the rival Buccaneers or San Francisco with a 49ers win.